Awards Circuit Column: Which movie will rule the Globes?

Predicting the best picture winner at the Oscars is akin to forecasting a storm approaching land, with any shifts in its trajectory likely altering its destination. No such weather patterns exist for the revamped Golden Globes: Given that the group is embracing a new network (CBS), an untested host (Jo Koy) and 300 voting members worldwide, the Jan. 7 ceremony could be one of the most surprising in its history.

The industry tends to anoint a presumed Oscar juggernaut. On one hand, the Globes might further cement a “Barbenheimer” Oscar battle by awarding Greta Gerwig’s toy-doll comedy and Christopher Nolan’s atomic bomb creation drama best picture in their respective categories. And although the group divides best picture and the lead acting performances by genre, the two blockbusters are set to face off in three races: director, screenplay and supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling). Nolan is poised to take directing honors, while “Barbie” could land prizes for its screenplay and Gosling.

On the other hand, the Globes are notorious for going their own way. Should the group choose not to think along “Barbenheimer” lines, that could benefit two competitors: Martin Scorsese’s crime thriller “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ fantastical sci-fi riot “Poor Things.”

Although this season has felt like Nolan’s to lose, Scorsese just might be the spoiler in the Globes’ directing derby with “Killers of the Flower Moon.” His track record here is strong, with three previous wins for “Gangs of New York” (2002), “The Departed” (2006) and “Hugo” (2011).

Meanwhile, in the lead acting races, a consensus hasn’t emerged from the awards chatter. Bradley Cooper’s transformation into conductor and composer Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro” has received raves from critics; so, too, co-star Carey Mulligan’s sparkling turn as Bernstein’s wife, Felicia Montealegre. However, aside from Cooper’s win at the Las Vegas Film Critics Society Awards, neither has landed any precursors. They might form a “package deal” on voters’ final ballots, but a safer bet is sticking with the two performers leading in critics’ prizes: Cillian Murphy of “Oppenheimer” and Lily Gladstone of “Flower Moon.”

Regarding the new category for box office and cinematic achievement, I’ve long believed it was “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” set to duke it out. However, the past few days of conversations have convinced me the highly successful concert film “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (which is not eligible for the Oscars) could upset, leaving Swifties rejoicing across the globe.

On the comedy side, actors playing characters with eerie similarities are vying to be crowned.

In “American Fiction” and “The Holdovers,” respective leads Jeffrey Wright and Paul Giamatti portray educators aspiring to be writers. And in “Barbie” and “Poor Things,” Margot Robbie and Emma Stone play women becoming both self-aware and aware of the outside world. Who among these will appeal to Globe voters’ sensibilities? I say the previous winners of their categories, Giamatti (“Barney’s Version”) and Stone (“La La Land”), add one gold statue to their collection.

Then again, as the Globes enter a new era, we’ll need more than a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

TV is always more of a crapshoot, as the group typically favored the newer series. Without the help of the Emmys that were delayed due to the strikes, they were left to their own devices.

Max’s “Succession” feels poised to take home the top drama prize, along with lead drama actress for Sarah Snook and supporting actor for Matthew Macfadyen.

With three lead drama actor nominees from the Jesse Armstrong series – Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong – my feeling is they vote-split and that benefits Pedro Pascal’s work as a hardened survivor in the Max network counterpart, “The Last of Us” (also a spoiler for drama series).

On the TV comedy side, this is where I see a few shockers sneaking through.

Instead of the two Emmy frontrunners, “The Bear” from FX or “Ted Lasso” from Apple TV+, I’ve opted for Amazon Freevee’s “Jury Duty” to win the top award.

“Bear” fans shouldn’t be too discouraged because I’m picking its leads, Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri, to win their respective prizes.

And finally in the limited series races, Netflix’s “Beef” should walk away with the series prize, in addition to Steven Yeun. And while Ali Wong is a likely winner, I have a sneaky suspicion that Brie Larson might kick off her Emmy campaign for the next awards season with her turn in Apple’s “Lessons in Chemistry.”

The brand new stand-up performance race seems down to comedians Chris Rock and Ricky Gervais, with a chance for Sarah Silverman or Wanda Sykes to stake their claims. I will give the edge to Netflix’s first live special kick-off person, Mr. Rock.

The full winner predictions are below.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

Variety parent company PMC owns Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge. 

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

Updated: Jan. 4, 2024

  • FILM CATEGORIES

  • Motion Picture (Drama)

    And The Nominees Are:

    Will Win: “Oppenheimer”
    Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Origin”

  • Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

    And The Nominees Are:

    Will Win: “Barbie”
    Could Win: “Poor Things”
    Should Have Been Nominated: • “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

  • Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
    • “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
    • “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    • “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
    • “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
    • “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (AMC Theatres)

    Will Win: “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour”
    Could Win: “Barbie”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Scream VI”

  • Motion Picture (Non English Language)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — France
    • “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Finland
    • “Io Capitano” (01 Distribution) — Italy
    • “Past Lives” (A24) — United States
    • “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — Spain
    • “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — United Kingdom

    Will Win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
    Could Win: “Past Lives”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Monsters”

  • Motion Picture (Animated)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
    • “Elemental” (Pixar)
    • “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    • “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
    • “Suzume” (Crunchyroll)
    • “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

    Will Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
    Could Win: “The Boy and the Heron”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Robot Dreams”

  • Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
    • Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)
    • Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    • Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    • Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    • Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

    Will Win: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
    Could Win: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Fassbender, “The Killer”

  • Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario” (A24)
    • Timothée Chalamet — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
    • Matt Damon — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    • Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    • Joaquin Phoenix — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
    • Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)

    Will Win: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
    Could Win: Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Jamie Foxx, “The Burial”

  • Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)
    • Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    • Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    • Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
    • Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
    • Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)

    Will Win: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
    Could Win: Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Origin”

  • Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    • Jennifer Lawrence — “No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)
    • Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)
    • Alma Pöysti – “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)
    • Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

    Will Win: Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
    Could Win: Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Eve Hewson, “Flora and Son”

  • Supporting Actor - Motion Picture

    And The Nominees Are:

    Will Win: Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
    Could Win: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
    Should Have Been Nominated: John Magaro, “Past Lives”

  • Supporting Actress - Motion Picture

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    • Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    • Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
    • Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix)
    • Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    • Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

    Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
    Could Win: Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Laurie Metcalf, “Somewhere in Queens”

  • Director - Motion Picture

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
    • Greta Gerwig — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    • Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    • Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    • Celine Song — “Past Lives” (A24)

    Will Win: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
    Could Win: Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”

  • Screenplay - Motion Picture

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
    • “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
    • “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
    • “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara
    • “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
    • “Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song

    Will Win: “Barbie”
    Could Win: “Past Lives”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “American Fiction”

  • Original Score

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids) — Joe Hisaishi
    • “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Robbie Robertson
    • “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Ludwig Göransson
    • “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jerskin Fendrix
    • “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Daniel Pemberton
    • “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Mica Levi 

    Will Win: “Oppenheimer”
    Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Saltburn”

  • Original Song

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “Dance the Night” by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
    • “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
    • “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas
    • “Rustin” (Netflix) — “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz
    • “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — “Addicted to Romance” by Bruce Springsteen and Patti Scialfa
    • “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — “Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, John Spiker

    Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
    Could Win: “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Live That Way Forever” from “The Iron Claw”

  • TV CATEGORIES

  • TV Series – Drama

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “1923” (Paramount+)
    • “The Crown” (Netflix)
    • “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    • “The Last of Us” (Max)
    • “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
    • “Succession” (Max)

    Will Win: “Succession”
    Could Win: “The Last of Us”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “The Curse”

    Last five winners: “House of the Dragon” (2022); “Succession” (2021); “The Crown” (2020); “Succession” (2019); “The Americans” (2018)

  • TV Series - Comedy or Musical

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    • “Barry” (Max)
    • “The Bear” (FX)
    • “Jury Duty” (Amazon Freevee)
    • “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    • “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

    Will Win: “Jury Duty”
    Could Win: “The Bear”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Reservation Dogs”

  • TV Series - Limited, Anthology or TV Movie

    And The Nominees Are:

    • “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
    • “Beef” (Netflix)
    • “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Amazon Prime Video)
    • “Fargo” (FX)
    • “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
    • “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)

    Will Win: “Beef”
    Could Win: “Lessons in Chemistry”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Love and Death”

  • Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Ricky Gervais — “Ricky Gervais: Armageddon” (Netflix)
    • Trevor Noah — “Trevor Noah: Where Was I” (Netflix)
    • Chris Rock — “Selective Outrage” (Netflix)
    • Amy Schumer — “Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact” (Netflix)
    • Wanda Sykes — “I’m an Entertainer” (Netflix)
    • Sarah Silverman — “Someone You Love” (Max)

    Will Win: Chris Rock
    Could Win: Ricky Gervais
    Should Have Been Nominated: John Mulaney

  • Actor in a TV Series (Drama)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Brian Cox — “Succession” (Max)
    • Kieran Culkin — “Succession” (Max)
    • Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
    • Pedro Pascal — “The Last of Us” (Max)
    • Jeremy Strong — “Succession” (Max)
    • Dominic West — “The Crown” (Netflix)

    Will Win: Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
    Could Win: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Harrison Ford

  • Actress in a TV Series (Drama)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Helen Mirren — “1923” (Paramount+)
    • Bella Ramsey — “The Last of Us” (Max)
    • Keri Russell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    • Sarah Snook — “Succession” (Max)
    • Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
    • Emma Stone — “The Curse” (Showtime)

    Will Win: Sarah Snook, “Succession”
    Could Win: Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”

  • Actor in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Bill Hader — “Barry” (Max)
    • Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    • Jason Segel — “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
    • Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    • Jason Sudeikis — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
    • Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)

    Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
    Could Win: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Ronald Gladden, “Jury Duty”

  • Actress in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Rachel Brosnahan — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
    • Quinta Brunson — “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    • Ayo Edebiri — “The Bear” (FX)
    • Elle Fanning — “The Great” (Hulu)
    • Selena Gomez — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    • Natasha Lyonne — “Poker Face” (Peacock)

    Will Win: Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
    Could Win: Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Bridget Everett, “Somebody Somewhere”

  • Actor in a TV Series (Limited, Anthology or TV Movie)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
    • Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Amazon Prime Video)
    • Jon Hamm — “Fargo” (FX)
    • Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers” (Max)
    • David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
    • Steven Yeun — “Beef” (Netflix)

    Will Win: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
    Could Win: Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Josh Hartnett, “Black Mirror”

  • Actress in a TV Series (Limited, Anthology or TV Movie)

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Riley Keough — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Amazon Prime Video)
    • Brie Larson — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
    • Elizabeth Olsen — “Love and Death” (Max)
    • Juno Temple — “Fargo” (FX)
    • Rachel Weisz — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
    • Ali Wong — “Beef” (Netflix)

    Will Win: Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
    Could Win: Ali Wong, “Beef”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Dominique Fishback, “Swarm”

  • Supporting Actor on Television

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Billy Crudup — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
    • Matthew Macfadyen — “Succession” (Max)
    • James Marsden — “Jury Duty” (Amazon Freevee)
    • Ebon Moss-Bachrach — “The Bear” (FX)
    • Alan Ruck — “Succession” (Max)
    • Alexander Skarsgård — “Succession” (Max)

    Will Win: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
    Could Win: James Marsden, “Jury Duty”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”

  • Supporting Actress on Television

    And The Nominees Are:

    • Elizabeth Debicki — “The Crown” (Netflix)
    • Abby Elliott — “The Bear” (FX)
    • Christina Ricci — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
    • J. Smith-Cameron — “Succession” (Max)
    • Meryl Streep — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    • Hannah Waddingham — “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

    Will Win: Meryl Streep, “Only Murders in the Building”
    Could Win: Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”

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